The Future of Obesity

I am not planning on having a headstone on my grave, or even having a grave for that matter. However, if my heirs decide to ignore my wishes and opt for some pithy observation chiseled into a tastefully sized granite block, I suspect they might choose “He always knew which way the wind was blowing ... but wasn’t so sure about the tides.” Which aptly describes both my navigational deficiencies they have observed here over my six decades on the Maine coast as well as my general inability to predict the future. Nonetheless, I am going to throw caution to the wind and take this opportunity to ponder where obesity in this country will go over the next couple of decades.

In March of last year the London-based World Obesity Federation published its World Obesity Atlas. In the summary the authors predict that based on current trends “obesity will cost the global economy of US $4 trillion of potential income in 2035, nearly 3% of current global domestic product (GDP).” They envision the “rising prevalence of obesity to be steepest among children and adolescents rising from 10% to 20% of the world’s boys during the period 2029 to 2035, and rising fro 8% to 18% of the world’s girls.”

These dire predictions assume no significant measures to reverse this trajectory such as universal health coverage. Nor do the authors attempt to predict the effect of the growing use of GLP-1 agonists. This omission is surprising and somewhat refreshing given the fact that the project was funded by an unrestricted grant from Novo Nordisk, a major producer of one of these drugs.

Unfortunately, I think it is unlikely that over the next couple of decades any large countries who do not already have a functioning universal health care system will find the political will to develop one capable of reversing the trend toward obesity. Certainly, I don’t see it in the cards for this country.

On the other hand, I can foresee the availability and ease of administration for GLP-1 agonists and similar drugs improving over the near term. However, the cost and availability will continue to widen the separation between the haves and the have-nots, both globally and within each country. This will mean that the countries and population subgroups that already experience the bulk of the economic and health consequences of obesity will continue to shoulder an outsized burden of this “disease.”

It is unclear how much this widening of the fat-getting-fatter dynamic will add to the global and national political unrest that already seems to be tracking the effects of climate change. However, I can’t imaging it is going to be a calming or uniting force.

Narrowing our focus from an international to an individual resource-rich country such as the United States, let’s consider what the significant growth in availability and affordability of GLP-1 agonist drugs will mean. There will certainly be short-term improvements in the morbidity and mortality of some of the obesity related diseases. However, for other conditions it may take longer than two decades for us to notice an effect. While it is tempting to consider these declines as a financial boon for the country that already spends a high percentage of its GDP on healthcare. However, as the well-known Saturday Night Live pundit Roseanne Roseannadanna often observed, ”it’s always something ... if it’s not one thing it’s another.” There may be other non-obesity conditions that surge to fill the gap, leaving us still with a substantial financial burden for healthcare.

Patients taking GLP-1 agonists lose weight because they feel full and eat less food. While currently the number of patients taking these drugs is relatively small, the effect on this country’s food consumption is too small to calculate. However, let’s assume that 20 years from now half of the obese patients are taking appetite blunting medication. Using today’s statistics this means that 50 million adults will be eating significantly less food. Will the agriculturists have gradually adjusted to produce less food? Will this mean there is more food for the those experiencing “food insecurity”? I doubt it. Most food insecurity seems to be a problem of distribution and inequality, not supply.

Physicians now caution patients taking GLP-1 agonists to eat a healthy and balanced diet. When the drugs are more commonly available, will this caution be heeded by the majority? Will we see a population that may no longer be obese but nonetheless malnourished because of bad choices?

And, finally, in a similar vein, will previously obese individuals suddenly or gradually begin to be more physically active once the appetite blunting medicines have helped them lose weight? Here, I have my doubts. Of course, some leaner individuals begin to take advantage of their new body morphology. But, I fear that old sedentary habits will die very slowly for most, and not at all for many. We have built a vehicle-centric society in which being physically active requires making a conscious effort. Electronic devices and sedentary entertainment options are not going to disappear just because a significant percentage of the population is no longer obese.

So there you have it. I suspect that I am correct about which way some of the winds are blowing as the obesity becomes moves into its treatable “disease” phase. But, as always, I haven’t a clue which way the tide is running.
 

Dr. Wilkoff practiced primary care pediatrics in Brunswick, Maine, for nearly 40 years. He has authored several books on behavioral pediatrics, including “How to Say No to Your Toddler.” Other than a Littman stethoscope he accepted as a first-year medical student in 1966, Dr. Wilkoff reports having nothing to disclose. Email him at pdnews@mdedge.com.

I am not planning on having a headstone on my grave, or even having a grave for that matter. However, if my heirs decide to ignore my wishes and opt for some pithy observation chiseled into a tastefully sized granite block, I suspect they might choose “He always knew which way the wind was blowing ... but wasn’t so sure about the tides.” Which aptly describes both my navigational deficiencies they have observed here over my six decades on the Maine coast as well as my general inability to predict the future. Nonetheless, I am going to throw caution to the wind and take this opportunity to ponder where obesity in this country will go over the next couple of decades.

In March of last year the London-based World Obesity Federation published its World Obesity Atlas. In the summary the authors predict that based on current trends “obesity will cost the global economy of US $4 trillion of potential income in 2035, nearly 3% of current global domestic product (GDP).” They envision the “rising prevalence of obesity to be steepest among children and adolescents rising from 10% to 20% of the world’s boys during the period 2029 to 2035, and rising fro 8% to 18% of the world’s girls.”

These dire predictions assume no significant measures to reverse this trajectory such as universal health coverage. Nor do the authors attempt to predict the effect of the growing use of GLP-1 agonists. This omission is surprising and somewhat refreshing given the fact that the project was funded by an unrestricted grant from Novo Nordisk, a major producer of one of these drugs.

Unfortunately, I think it is unlikely that over the next couple of decades any large countries who do not already have a functioning universal health care system will find the political will to develop one capable of reversing the trend toward obesity. Certainly, I don’t see it in the cards for this country.

On the other hand, I can foresee the availability and ease of administration for GLP-1 agonists and similar drugs improving over the near term. However, the cost and availability will continue to widen the separation between the haves and the have-nots, both globally and within each country. This will mean that the countries and population subgroups that already experience the bulk of the economic and health consequences of obesity will continue to shoulder an outsized burden of this “disease.”

It is unclear how much this widening of the fat-getting-fatter dynamic will add to the global and national political unrest that already seems to be tracking the effects of climate change. However, I can’t imaging it is going to be a calming or uniting force.

Narrowing our focus from an international to an individual resource-rich country such as the United States, let’s consider what the significant growth in availability and affordability of GLP-1 agonist drugs will mean. There will certainly be short-term improvements in the morbidity and mortality of some of the obesity related diseases. However, for other conditions it may take longer than two decades for us to notice an effect. While it is tempting to consider these declines as a financial boon for the country that already spends a high percentage of its GDP on healthcare. However, as the well-known Saturday Night Live pundit Roseanne Roseannadanna often observed, ”it’s always something ... if it’s not one thing it’s another.” There may be other non-obesity conditions that surge to fill the gap, leaving us still with a substantial financial burden for healthcare.

Patients taking GLP-1 agonists lose weight because they feel full and eat less food. While currently the number of patients taking these drugs is relatively small, the effect on this country’s food consumption is too small to calculate. However, let’s assume that 20 years from now half of the obese patients are taking appetite blunting medication. Using today’s statistics this means that 50 million adults will be eating significantly less food. Will the agriculturists have gradually adjusted to produce less food? Will this mean there is more food for the those experiencing “food insecurity”? I doubt it. Most food insecurity seems to be a problem of distribution and inequality, not supply.

Physicians now caution patients taking GLP-1 agonists to eat a healthy and balanced diet. When the drugs are more commonly available, will this caution be heeded by the majority? Will we see a population that may no longer be obese but nonetheless malnourished because of bad choices?

And, finally, in a similar vein, will previously obese individuals suddenly or gradually begin to be more physically active once the appetite blunting medicines have helped them lose weight? Here, I have my doubts. Of course, some leaner individuals begin to take advantage of their new body morphology. But, I fear that old sedentary habits will die very slowly for most, and not at all for many. We have built a vehicle-centric society in which being physically active requires making a conscious effort. Electronic devices and sedentary entertainment options are not going to disappear just because a significant percentage of the population is no longer obese.

So there you have it. I suspect that I am correct about which way some of the winds are blowing as the obesity becomes moves into its treatable “disease” phase. But, as always, I haven’t a clue which way the tide is running.
 

Dr. Wilkoff practiced primary care pediatrics in Brunswick, Maine, for nearly 40 years. He has authored several books on behavioral pediatrics, including “How to Say No to Your Toddler.” Other than a Littman stethoscope he accepted as a first-year medical student in 1966, Dr. Wilkoff reports having nothing to disclose. Email him at pdnews@mdedge.com.

I am not planning on having a headstone on my grave, or even having a grave for that matter. However, if my heirs decide to ignore my wishes and opt for some pithy observation chiseled into a tastefully sized granite block, I suspect they might choose “He always knew which way the wind was blowing ... but wasn’t so sure about the tides.” Which aptly describes both my navigational deficiencies they have observed here over my six decades on the Maine coast as well as my general inability to predict the future. Nonetheless, I am going to throw caution to the wind and take this opportunity to ponder where obesity in this country will go over the next couple of decades.

In March of last year the London-based World Obesity Federation published its World Obesity Atlas. In the summary the authors predict that based on current trends “obesity will cost the global economy of US $4 trillion of potential income in 2035, nearly 3% of current global domestic product (GDP).” They envision the “rising prevalence of obesity to be steepest among children and adolescents rising from 10% to 20% of the world’s boys during the period 2029 to 2035, and rising fro 8% to 18% of the world’s girls.”

These dire predictions assume no significant measures to reverse this trajectory such as universal health coverage. Nor do the authors attempt to predict the effect of the growing use of GLP-1 agonists. This omission is surprising and somewhat refreshing given the fact that the project was funded by an unrestricted grant from Novo Nordisk, a major producer of one of these drugs.

Unfortunately, I think it is unlikely that over the next couple of decades any large countries who do not already have a functioning universal health care system will find the political will to develop one capable of reversing the trend toward obesity. Certainly, I don’t see it in the cards for this country.

On the other hand, I can foresee the availability and ease of administration for GLP-1 agonists and similar drugs improving over the near term. However, the cost and availability will continue to widen the separation between the haves and the have-nots, both globally and within each country. This will mean that the countries and population subgroups that already experience the bulk of the economic and health consequences of obesity will continue to shoulder an outsized burden of this “disease.”

It is unclear how much this widening of the fat-getting-fatter dynamic will add to the global and national political unrest that already seems to be tracking the effects of climate change. However, I can’t imaging it is going to be a calming or uniting force.

Narrowing our focus from an international to an individual resource-rich country such as the United States, let’s consider what the significant growth in availability and affordability of GLP-1 agonist drugs will mean. There will certainly be short-term improvements in the morbidity and mortality of some of the obesity related diseases. However, for other conditions it may take longer than two decades for us to notice an effect. While it is tempting to consider these declines as a financial boon for the country that already spends a high percentage of its GDP on healthcare. However, as the well-known Saturday Night Live pundit Roseanne Roseannadanna often observed, ”it’s always something ... if it’s not one thing it’s another.” There may be other non-obesity conditions that surge to fill the gap, leaving us still with a substantial financial burden for healthcare.

Patients taking GLP-1 agonists lose weight because they feel full and eat less food. While currently the number of patients taking these drugs is relatively small, the effect on this country’s food consumption is too small to calculate. However, let’s assume that 20 years from now half of the obese patients are taking appetite blunting medication. Using today’s statistics this means that 50 million adults will be eating significantly less food. Will the agriculturists have gradually adjusted to produce less food? Will this mean there is more food for the those experiencing “food insecurity”? I doubt it. Most food insecurity seems to be a problem of distribution and inequality, not supply.

Physicians now caution patients taking GLP-1 agonists to eat a healthy and balanced diet. When the drugs are more commonly available, will this caution be heeded by the majority? Will we see a population that may no longer be obese but nonetheless malnourished because of bad choices?

And, finally, in a similar vein, will previously obese individuals suddenly or gradually begin to be more physically active once the appetite blunting medicines have helped them lose weight? Here, I have my doubts. Of course, some leaner individuals begin to take advantage of their new body morphology. But, I fear that old sedentary habits will die very slowly for most, and not at all for many. We have built a vehicle-centric society in which being physically active requires making a conscious effort. Electronic devices and sedentary entertainment options are not going to disappear just because a significant percentage of the population is no longer obese.

So there you have it. I suspect that I am correct about which way some of the winds are blowing as the obesity becomes moves into its treatable “disease” phase. But, as always, I haven’t a clue which way the tide is running.
 

Dr. Wilkoff practiced primary care pediatrics in Brunswick, Maine, for nearly 40 years. He has authored several books on behavioral pediatrics, including “How to Say No to Your Toddler.” Other than a Littman stethoscope he accepted as a first-year medical student in 1966, Dr. Wilkoff reports having nothing to disclose. Email him at pdnews@mdedge.com.